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SaaS, 云,供应链,工业4.0,谁定义了中国的产业互联网?

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文/WIM组委会


2C(to-consumer)企业在中国发展得如火如荼,然而当今中国最热的话题却非 “产业互联网”莫属。自2010年至2017年,中国的GDP从6万亿增长到12万亿,催生了市值超过百亿美金的2C公司。拼多多在8月末,赶超百度,以395.1美金的市值跻身中国互联网五强。其中,市值最高的阿里和腾讯已经超过3000亿美金。排名第三的美团,虽然尚难以望其项背,但已经是全球最大的即时食物配送平台。美团和饿了么每年创造的收入,占据了该市场全球的64%的份额。

中国的消费者,已经在C端实现了无与伦比的精致,或者至少,已经超越了许多的欧美国家。然而,B端(to business)的改造仍然落后于发达国家。

2018年,腾讯创始人马化腾提出了“产业互联网”的概念,展示了这个缔造了中国最大的社交网络的公司在2B时代的野心。

这个概念可以约等于2B,但是也不绝对。在我们与投资人的探讨中,普遍的共识是,“产业”是一个垂直的概念,并且顺序应当颠倒,“互联网+产业”是一个更为准确的说法,它描绘了互联网技术应用到产业、产业链的场景,也正符合当今许多关注2B领域投资人的投资概念。产业互联网,由此,也包含以下几个概念:

云服务(Cloud)以及其中所包含的SaaS (Software-as-a-Service), PaaS (Platform-as-a-Serive), IaaS (Infrastructure-as-a-Service)。我们认为,SaaS企业,在现阶段对中国创投与产业互联网的研究最具有价值。其一,阿里云、腾讯云、网易云把持了中国的公有云市场,阿里云更是在2019年第一季度以66%的增速讲其在中国市场的份额扩大至47.3%,另外,阿里提出了SaaS Accelerator战略,将与中国的SaaS企业共建生态系统。其二,SaaS企业在2016年经历了投资的高峰期后,市场逐步回调,进入稳步发展阶段。

B2B交易环节的参与者以及供应链企业。通过投入到物流、仓库等基础设施建设,这些参与者通过技术手段,深入到各个诸如零售、餐饮、汽车后市场等实体产业,提升了商流、物流以及交易的效率,优化产业链结构,成功成为产业价值的一环。

工业4.0,通过提升制造业生产车间的效率,改造了工业。

在美国,以上三种形态的企业不乏百亿美金市值的公司,以SaaS为例,自2014年Salesforce上市以来,有超过70家的SaaS公司上市。Workday,Shopify,以及今年上市Zoom和Slack都已经超过百亿市值。

我们根据KeyBanc Capital所跟踪的SaaS公司(截止今年1月),并补充了部分今年IPO的企业,共计覆盖66家SaaS上市公司。这些公司平均已上市4.56年,平均为其投资人带来4.59倍的投资回报,累计市值达到6100亿美金。有4家公司投资回报超过12倍: Shopify (SHOP), Paycom (PAYC), ServiceNow (NOW),以及Salesforce (CRM)

一个普遍的认识是,对于SaaS公司来说,年收入达到1亿美金便是能够上市的标志,而中国的SaaS公司,是否也是一致呢?SaaS,数据,将为中国的产业互联网带来怎样的力量呢?

亿欧国际EqualOcean将于本周日9月8日举办WIM X Beijing系列沙龙第二场《产业互联网——中国互联网的下半场Industry Internet – the Second Half of Internet Era》沙龙,祥峰投资助理投资总监姜煦女士将与来自百度风投的投资副总裁⽅鑫先生、弘玑Cyclone科技副总裁高煜丰先生,腾讯云副总裁及腾讯企点总经理张晔先生共话此命题。

Surf’s up! Riding on the second wave of Internet in China

To what extent an enterprise serves or B2B marketplace company influencing the industry can be considered as an Industry Internet player? The answer to that is the holy grail of China’s 2B market.

Consumer-focused business retained its cachet for the past decades in China, but technology startups that cater to businesses are the hottest topic now. Between 2000 and 2017, Chinese GDP reached to USD 12.2 trillion from USD 1.2 trillion. Along the way, China witnessed the successes of juggernauts such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, JD.com, Meituan Dianping, Xiaomi, and NetEase; Chinese consumers gained the reputation of adopting new technologies with incredible speed and reshape Chinese consumers’ lives significantly. The country is transforming, especially driven by consumer internet.

It will continue to do so in the era of Industry Internet – a term initiated by Tencent’s founder Pony Ma in 2018 and shows the most valuable social network firm’s ambitions on leveraging internet capabilities across Chinese industries.

Industry Internet is a concept that involves most of 2B opportunities

Defining ”Industry Internet,” however, has become complicated- and more vital- as the combination of industry and internet can be too broad if we include all the to-business innovations here. 

To achieve a better understanding of the impact of Industry Internet, EqualOcean conduct interviews with dozens of leading investors that devoted more than average 10 years across the industry to learn how they see the topic.

It has a couple of implications. One is SaaS (Software-as-a-Service), a relatively new business model with a premise that a piece of software is hosted on a cloud infrastructure, and businesses pay a monthly/annually fee to get access to this software. Business owners do not have to spend huge sums of capex in IT infrastructure while getting access to software that is incredibly integral with their businesses. Ever since Salesforce went public in 2004, almost other 70 purely-play SaaS companies followed to be listed. Cloud-based CRM and ERP software, and other vertically focused business software have seen opportunities in transforming industries. By saying that, it is inevitable to bring up cloud market because SaaS is built on the cloud infrastructure. The cloud market involves SaaS, IaaS (Infrastructure-as-a-Service), PaaS (Platform-as-a-service), and etc.

Another implication is that all the enterprises involved in the merchandise circulation of commodities should possess strong supply chain capabilities. Companies that connect upstream suppliers and downstream buyers such as e-commerce enterprises and retail stores can be defined as B2B marketplace players. Supply chain players also make presences here.

They use digital and mobile channels to guide the purchase journeys; E-commerce giants are digitizing essential processes along the supply chain, which can be defined as S2C (JD.com, Alibaba); Retail chains that buy excess inventory from manufacturers and stores at bottom price and pass on the savings the customers, speeding up turnover and improving industry efficiency can be defined as S2B2C (Aikucun, a counterpart of TJ Maxx).  They need to invest in technology, data, and analytics to improve insights into supply chain management, warehouses, logistics, and even customer behaviors.

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随着诺亚财富“踩雷”承兴国际控股事件爆发,后者隐秘的供应链金融融资手法开始浮出水面。21世纪经济报道记者独家获悉,在遭遇踩雷承兴控股事件后,诺亚财富已决定从7月起,暂停供应链金融等“单一”非标类固收产品业务。(21世纪经济报道) 随着诺亚财富“踩

The last one is digital factory/industrial internet. Industrial leaders are introducing innovative, data-based services to digitize essential functions within their internal vertical manufacturing process. These enterprises will work for that internally, also with suppliers in industrial digital ecosystems.

This complexity makes it is hard to measure and understand the whole picture of Industry Internet. To what extent an enterprise serves or B2B marketplace company influencing the industry can be considered as an Industry Internet player? The answer to that is the holy grail of China’s 2B market.

EqualOcean focuses mainly on vertical-specific SaaS and S2B players in the research, as their businesses have significantly influenced industries and crack the code of the industries, directly. Still, considering China’ SaaS market is in its nascent, we introduce several horizontal SaaS firms in the investigation, not too much.

In this article, we talk about SaaS opportunities.

History of SaaS public firms: stock, returns, and valuations

Salesforce went public in 2004 and the era of cloud starts. More than 70 other pure-play SaaS companies followed the pace in the public markets. Some got acquired before got listing (i.e. Responsys) or after that (i.e. MINDBODY, Inc.). This year we saw seven star SaaS companies such as CrowdStrike Holdings, Slack, Zoom Video Communications filed for IPOs and proved their successes in the secondary market.

Zoom is now trading at 64.13 times revenues as of 8/28/2019. Given all the recent IPOs and their high trading multiples, it is imperative to look at the past one-year performance of public SaaS companies. The SPY index was trampling around 100% along the past year and stopped at 95.08% this month. SaaS stocks, on the other hand, picked up momentum after 2018 ended and grew right through the market volatility. A basket of public SaaS stocks trades at a median multiple of 10.86 revenues. Salesforce (CRM: NYSE) has grown to be a USD 129.97 billion market cap company in 15 years and we will continue to see more small players to follow, with the support from primary markets and secondary markets.

EqualOcean looked into 66 publicly traded SaaS companies and tracked the trading history from IPO to date. The returns for them are impressive: on average this group of companies has been trading for 4.56 years and the average return is 4.59x. Those companies have created around USD 610 billion market cap.

Most of the companies in the group concentrate on the left-below part of the chart and we see a common trend: larger public SaaS companies record higher multiple returns compared to smaller ones.

After digging into the individual performance of companies that had share price returns of 12x+, we found four companies here – Shopify (SHOP), Paycom (PAYC), ServiceNow (NOW), and Salesforce (CRM). Shopify, the youngest public company among the four, has the greatest share price return from IPO price -23x. 

The impact of revenue growth on the valuation multiple has long been considered as significant. Some investors said that they had never seen any other indicators that could determine a SaaS company’s valuation as the growth rate. The chart below is based on the previous 66 SaaS company’s performance and spreads growth rate against their revenue multiples.

The logic is that a higher growth business generates more cash in the future relative to its size today than a slow growth company of the same size.  The correlation, however, is stronger for medium-and large-sized players than for smaller players. Shopify, with 34.8x revenue multiple, has been growing at a 72% CAGR of revenue and recorded 55.33% revenue growth last year; Salesforce has grown revenue at almost 40% CAGR for 15+ year. It’s an established player and moved into a mature stage, is now traded at 9.27x revenue multiple. Twilio, has been traded for ~3 years in the public market, grew its business by 53% last year. Its value is now as 21 times as revenue.

EqualOcean is going to host a WIM Salon talking about the concept this Sunday in Beijing, which was in cooperation with Mydream+, Chinaccelerator, ZhugeIO.com, Pipiban, Startup Grind, Nordic-China Startup Forum. 

WIM Salon的合作伙伴有:Mydream+, Chinaccelerator, 诸葛IO, 皮皮班, Startup Grind, Nordic-China Startup Forum。

****合作伙伴的logo:

了解更多未尽事宜和沙龙活动相关合作,可通过邮箱联系我们:Aysen@EqualOcean.com; Contact@EqualOcean.com

For any inquires or suggestions, please feel free to contact us: Aysen@EqualOcean.com; Contact@EqualOcean.com

点击“阅读原文”报名我们09月08日《产业互联网——中国互联网的下半场》的活动~

Register the “Industry Internet – the Second Half of Internet Era” Salon on September 08 by clicking “Read More”



戳原文,更有料!

供应链金融现状解析

目录 1、大类资产走势回顾 2、行业热点:供应链金融前景看好 3、市场聚焦:国常会释放降准信号 4、地产动态:房企上半年业绩稳增 5、股权视角:硬科技投资受追捧 大类资产走势回顾 【A股】A股上涨,获外资持续看好  上证综指:2985.86点(↗3.28%)  深证成指

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